Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Update on NIC Report

The part they declassified on the report was sort of an Executive Summary and fully supports what people have been saying about the leaked portions of the report plus a bit. It's very well-balanced and acknowledges progress as well as failure.

The sections on Iraq are, however, chilling. Essentially they concluded that for the time we are dithering around and not winning in Iraq we are allowing the radical Islamists a breeding ground and recruiting tool they never had before. The conclusion was that inasmuch as we do not decisively win in Iraq so that the terrorists leave feeling they failed, we have fueled world terrorism.

The report concludes that Al-Quaida has been weakened, which is something we knew, but that it has also splintered and decentralized and that other groups have also been created with only philosophical rather than political ties to Al-Quaida. The report stresses that this makes them harder to find and harder to stop.

The positive conclusions were that the spread of democracy and the creation of governments where people have some say and don't view their government as corrupt and oppressive would go a long way toward defusing the root cause of terrorism. It points out that most Muslims do not want a Sharia state that the radicals envision. The downside to this is that many moderate Muslims are radicalized by our presence in the Middle East and our inability to stop or even curb the violence that started when we came into Iraq.

The overall tone of the report's conclusions are chilling. They are not generally positive nor do they seem to be suggesting a solution. I can see why Bush didn't want this report out. It's not that there is anything whatever in it that should have been classified. Classification should not be used solely because the conclusions reached in a report makes a current or past administration look bad, weak, and ineffective. That is apparently why this particular report was classified.

Republicans have been quick to point out the conclusion that says it is critical to controlling terrorism that we win in Iraq. This is true. What they neglect to mention is that had we never gone into Iraq and then decided not to win there, there would be no current focus and breeding ground for terrorists as there is today. To be fair, they might have found somewhere else, but to be honest that's not what happened. So yes, it's critical we win now that we're there, but the report leaves no doubt whatever that it would have been much better for the world had we never gone in there in the first place.

Personally I am not encouraged by the conclusions of the report. I am even more discouraged that the present government found it necessary to hide these conclusions from us pretending they somehow compromised national security, which they do not in any way do. The report itself is apparently 32 pages long. I am not sure if it is being declassified. I hope so.

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